From the analysis it appears that turnout is key and appears it may be an easy victory for our President if we have minimum or average turnout. A much tighter battle if turnout is high from an interesting article from Moody’s Analytical by Mark Zandi, Dan White and Bernard Yaros.
“The economy may not be top of mind for voters in every election, but it is hardly ever further than a close second. This is the principle underpinning Moody’s Analytics presidential election models. The models predict whether the incumbent presidential candidate will win the popular vote in each state and the District of Columbia, and thus the necessary electoral college votes to win the election.
This type of presidential election analysis is not new, beginning in the late 1970s by economist Ray Fair. However, his seminal work was based on national correlations between economic conditions and presidential election outcomes. What sets apart the Moody’s Analytics models and their predecessors from similar efforts is a focus on regional economic growth that produces state-by-state projections of the Electoral College outcome….
… In 2020, President Trump will be as much the nongeneric candidate as he was in 2016, and Democrats may also nominate a candidate who is a break from past party nominees. Further, if the 2018 midterms are anything to go by, turnout in 2020 could be the highest in living memory….”
Click on the following link to read the full article from Moody’s Analytics: