Trump Leads Clinton By 1 Point Going Into Debate — IBD/TIPP Poll
John Merline | 10/19/2016 | Investors Business Daily
After more than a week of blistering attacks from Democrats, celebrities and the press, Donald Trump has managed to pull ahead of Hillary Clinton by a 1.3 percentage point margin — 41.3% to 40% — in a four-way matchup, according to the new IBD/TIPP poll released today.
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson got 7.6% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein got 5.5%. The results are the first in the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll. Daily updates start Thursday and will continue until the election.
The IBD/TIPP poll previously was monitoring support for the candidates in the 2016 election on a monthly basis. The new results are Trump’s best showing in months. The poll also found that in a two-way matchup, Clinton is up by 3 points — 43.6% to 40.6% — which represents a slight gain from September, when Clinton was ahead 44% to 43%.
“From the results, it looks as if Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are drawing more support away from Clinton than Trump,” said Ragavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts the poll.
These results are far closer than the Real Clear Politics average, which currently has Clinton up 6.2 points in the four-way poll and by 6.6 points in a two-way matchup.
What’s more, Trump scores higher on voter intensity, with 67% of his backers saying they strongly support him, compared with 58% of Clinton supporters who say they strongly back their candidate.
However, half of those polled think Clinton will end up winning the election, compared with 20% who say Trump will.
The IBD/TIPP tracking poll has been cited as the most accurate in predicting actual election results in the past three presidential elections.
In the four-way matchup, the poll shows some noteworthy gaps.
By gender, Clinton does much better among women — 47% to 37% — but Trump’s lead among men is just as strong at 47% to 32%.
Trump does better among parents (46% to 32%), married women (44% to 41%), lower-class households (53% to 37%), and the religious, among whom Clinton’s support never tops 38%. Among those who express no religion, Clinton handily beats Trump 63% to 16%.
Clinton does better among college educated — 45% to 36% — while Trump outperforms Clinton among those with only a high school education — 58% to 27%.
For the results released today, TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence conducted the Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP poll from Oct. 13 through Oct. 18, 2016.
A total of 872 Americans age 18 or older participated in the nationwide survey. Of the 872 respondents, 825 were registered voters and 782 were likely voters.
The story is based on the subsample of likely voters. The margin of error for the likely voters sample is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
TechnoMetrica uses “traditional” telephone methodology using live interviewers for data collection for its public opinion surveys. Roughly 65% of interviews come from a cell phone sample and 35% from a Random Digit Dial (RDD) land line sample.